Have been doing a lot of reading. Seems all the experts agree, no one knows who will win. Even the post position draw probably won't help sort out that problem. Might be time to go to the well for the "non-expert" method of picking horses.
Bet 3-6-9 trifecta. Long story short, on our honeymoon in Saratoga, these were the numbers Mrs. wants to play for a trifecta. We had been losing for 3 days and I looked at the odds and they were off the board. So, I don't bet it and it comes in and pays $4,800.00. Ever since, bet those numbers if there is nothing else I like.
Don't lose to the trainers. This could be Pletchers' year, so probably will bet his horses. No Baffert or Lukas but always bet them as well.
Bet the hot jockey. Probably try this as well.
Past Performances will be available tonight from Daily Racing Form online for free so will have those to pour over tomorrow. Probably wont help.
Picks will be out before Saturday.
Later,
JH
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Derby update for Monday
Here is a wierd connection, this guy who repaired the hoof on Big Brown, used to curl at Plainfield.
So where are we in the choices? So far, Big Brown, Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego are in the mix although one will probably get thrown out. If past history is any indicator, bet the house on the one I throw out. Others that I will be looking at are Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack. Why those are intriguing is due to their past Beyer numbers. Not gonna explain what that is but in the last 20 years, only one horse with a Beyer under 100 has won the Derby. So they get considered.
But seven horses is too many to bet so there will be more digging when the past performances come out late Wednesday. Also, the post position draw will be done that evening.
It is an exciting week.
Later,
JH
So where are we in the choices? So far, Big Brown, Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego are in the mix although one will probably get thrown out. If past history is any indicator, bet the house on the one I throw out. Others that I will be looking at are Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack. Why those are intriguing is due to their past Beyer numbers. Not gonna explain what that is but in the last 20 years, only one horse with a Beyer under 100 has won the Derby. So they get considered.
But seven horses is too many to bet so there will be more digging when the past performances come out late Wednesday. Also, the post position draw will be done that evening.
It is an exciting week.
Later,
JH
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Yankees time
As loyal readers will know, Mrs. JHcurl entertains clients at Yankee games in a suite as part of her job. We start with a couple of games next Sunday and the following Wednesday. Along with this there is usually a couple of curlers that show up to these games. So, on May 7th the skip of the Olympic bronze medal team will be in town and will be attending the game. Guess I need to start paying attention to the Yankees and if they are playing well. I don't think they are right now.
Yep, Pete and his dad are coming to NY. Don't think either has been to a game so should be a lot of fun. Of course, all the games are crazy this year since it is the last year of the stadium. The atmosphere should be rocking (hee).
Later,
JH
Yep, Pete and his dad are coming to NY. Don't think either has been to a game so should be a lot of fun. Of course, all the games are crazy this year since it is the last year of the stadium. The atmosphere should be rocking (hee).
Later,
JH
Friday, April 25, 2008
First Saturday in May
I know, I know, it is next weekend. But the event I probably look forward to the most in sports is "the most exciting two minutes in sport". Of course, that is the Kentucky Derby. This the time of year I spend many hours scouring the internet to find all I can about the horses.
Over the last few years this has paid off since the reason I do all that is to make some hopefully "good" bets. The best of those was 2002 when I had the exacta for $1800. That was fun. Made some money the last two years but nothing big.
This year could be one of those years. The big question mark is Big Brown. Is he really the monster that he has shown or not?
My normal betting strategy is to throw out the favorite. But with Big Brown probably going off in the neighborhood of 3-1 that makes him worthwhile to play. Get a longer shot underneath and the exacta could be really nice.
The rest of the field looks rather even though there will be some to throw out. Probably end up with 4 or 5 horses I like and then try to set up some exactas and trifectas to make a few coins.
A lot will come down to the post position draw on Wednesday. Then the past performances will be out probably Thursday. So Friday will be a study day and then over to OTB in CT to make the bets.
Look for a post next week with the picks. For now, Big Brown will hit the board somewhere IMHO.
Over the last few years this has paid off since the reason I do all that is to make some hopefully "good" bets. The best of those was 2002 when I had the exacta for $1800. That was fun. Made some money the last two years but nothing big.
This year could be one of those years. The big question mark is Big Brown. Is he really the monster that he has shown or not?
My normal betting strategy is to throw out the favorite. But with Big Brown probably going off in the neighborhood of 3-1 that makes him worthwhile to play. Get a longer shot underneath and the exacta could be really nice.
The rest of the field looks rather even though there will be some to throw out. Probably end up with 4 or 5 horses I like and then try to set up some exactas and trifectas to make a few coins.
A lot will come down to the post position draw on Wednesday. Then the past performances will be out probably Thursday. So Friday will be a study day and then over to OTB in CT to make the bets.
Look for a post next week with the picks. For now, Big Brown will hit the board somewhere IMHO.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Baseball Chokes
Based on the comment by MF to this, I did a little googling to find out some more info. Here is an article in SI that includes some stats on the probabilities.
Of note, the '64 Phils are number 13, the Yanks-Bosox come in at 7 and the Mutts are number 5.
From the article -
What the math says: 499-to-1 against. The Mets' playoff probability peaked at 99.80 percent after the action of Sept. 12, when they held a 7-game lead over the Phillies with 16 games to play, and some favorable wild-card permutations as a backup.
So, the sucking includes the fact that not only did they not win the division (HA!) but also missed the wild card (double HA!).
The added bonus is that now all my friends who are Mets fans can't bring up 1964 anymore.
Thanks for reading MF.
Phils-Mets this weekend starting tonight (at Philly), so get to watch the boys play some games. ESPN Sunday night game as well.
Later,
JH
Of note, the '64 Phils are number 13, the Yanks-Bosox come in at 7 and the Mutts are number 5.
From the article -
What the math says: 499-to-1 against. The Mets' playoff probability peaked at 99.80 percent after the action of Sept. 12, when they held a 7-game lead over the Phillies with 16 games to play, and some favorable wild-card permutations as a backup.
So, the sucking includes the fact that not only did they not win the division (HA!) but also missed the wild card (double HA!).
The added bonus is that now all my friends who are Mets fans can't bring up 1964 anymore.
Thanks for reading MF.
Phils-Mets this weekend starting tonight (at Philly), so get to watch the boys play some games. ESPN Sunday night game as well.
Later,
JH
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Spring has sprung
So, no more curling for a while. At least not until the Cape and possibly the Crush. Of course there is also the annual meeting of the LBI curling club held on location down the shore.
Now is the time for baseball and the annual turmoil that is rooting for the Fightin' Phils. I grew up in Southern New Jersey (or more correctly South Jersey, an entry for a later date) and became a Phils fan at 8. Listening to Harry Calas and Rich Ashburn on the radio and watching Schmidt hit all those dingers ("It's outta here"). Still catch a game on TV whenever they are playing the Mets (boo) or the Braves (double boo). The last few years have been making a bet in Vegas on them to win it all. Got one for this year as well.
As part of Mrs. JHcurl's job she entertains clients at Yankee Stadium as loyal readers will know. Get to go there for about 15 games a year. Not bad but have never been an AL fan. Still hate the DH, always will. Takes away too much of the strategy of the game.
At least the Phils are not 10 games out of first yet like a couple of years ago. And there can always be another collapse by Mets which was the greatest thing to happen in sports for quite a while. Now there is the 2007 Mets instead of the '64 Phils that people will use as the "greatest choke in baseball".
Anyway, off-season posting has begun and will touch on who knows what.
Later,
JH
Now is the time for baseball and the annual turmoil that is rooting for the Fightin' Phils. I grew up in Southern New Jersey (or more correctly South Jersey, an entry for a later date) and became a Phils fan at 8. Listening to Harry Calas and Rich Ashburn on the radio and watching Schmidt hit all those dingers ("It's outta here"). Still catch a game on TV whenever they are playing the Mets (boo) or the Braves (double boo). The last few years have been making a bet in Vegas on them to win it all. Got one for this year as well.
As part of Mrs. JHcurl's job she entertains clients at Yankee Stadium as loyal readers will know. Get to go there for about 15 games a year. Not bad but have never been an AL fan. Still hate the DH, always will. Takes away too much of the strategy of the game.
At least the Phils are not 10 games out of first yet like a couple of years ago. And there can always be another collapse by Mets which was the greatest thing to happen in sports for quite a while. Now there is the 2007 Mets instead of the '64 Phils that people will use as the "greatest choke in baseball".
Anyway, off-season posting has begun and will touch on who knows what.
Later,
JH
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Men's Worlds aftermath
Got home with no problem on the flights. Always a good thing. It is always kind of a culture shock when returning to NY from somewhere small. Both how crowded and congested it is here in the East and the amount of open spaces there are elsewhere. On the ten minute drive to the Grand Forks airport went a back road and passed maybe 5 houses.
It was a fun time. The committee did a great job. The final was a bit boring. Scotland just couldn't get anything going it seemed.
I think the Tuesday to Monday schedule works well for attending and viewing. Dont get burnt out or tired before the final weekend rolls around.
Probably won't be in Moncton next year. Since the girls are going to the Scotties as Team Canada, we will probably go to Victoria instead if we go anyway.
Later,
JH
It was a fun time. The committee did a great job. The final was a bit boring. Scotland just couldn't get anything going it seemed.
I think the Tuesday to Monday schedule works well for attending and viewing. Dont get burnt out or tired before the final weekend rolls around.
Probably won't be in Moncton next year. Since the girls are going to the Scotties as Team Canada, we will probably go to Victoria instead if we go anyway.
Later,
JH
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