Okay, so given my schedule for the next two days as previously noted, here is the pick to win this year.
I Want Revenge
Favorite has won the last two and 3 of the last 5. I think that repeats again. Have to bet a lot on just a win to make any money as he goes off somewhere in the 2-1 range. Since betting the Derby is all about making money time to figure out which horse of 7 will finish second and make the payout worth it.
Betting strategy at this point - IWR on top of a $5 exacta with 4 or 5 horses underneath ($20 or $25 bet). Then some $1 trifectas with IWR on top and 5 horses for second and 7 or 8 for third. A bet on Flying Private for show, the 3-6-9 bet (probably exacta) and the Baffert-Lukas box exacta (IWR and Flying Private).
If I get a chance tomorrow night will update who the rest of the horses are that will hit the board. Remember bet with your head and not over it.
Later,
JH
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Kentucky Derby Thursday am update
Post positions are drawn and the field is finally set. Past performances are being printed out. Lots of reading to do for the next couple of days. Two roadblocks to that, going to the Yankees tonight and have to drive to New Hamsphire tomorrow for a meeting.
Early picks for the win - I Want Revenge, Freisan Fire. Dunkirk just has not raced enough. Pioneerof the Nile looks good but doesn't have a Beyer figure over 100 but will bet him anyway as Baffert won't beat me again.
More later after lots more reading.
Later,
JH
Early picks for the win - I Want Revenge, Freisan Fire. Dunkirk just has not raced enough. Pioneerof the Nile looks good but doesn't have a Beyer figure over 100 but will bet him anyway as Baffert won't beat me again.
More later after lots more reading.
Later,
JH
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Kentucky Derby Wednesday update
Another horse dropped out, Win Willy and a horse got in, Atomic Rain. Neither are factors.
Post position draw just finished up. It is a long race with lots of horses. Post position is not that much a factor. Big Brown won last year from the far outside post 20.
Okay on to the topic. With 20 horses involved there is only one way to guarantee having the winner. Bet on every horse to win. You won't make any money unless a real long shot wins. So, now is the time to decide who can't win or finish in the top three.
The throwouts for this year.
Post Horse Odds
4 Advice 30-1 *
14 Atomic Rain 50-1 *
12 General Quarters 20-1 *
5 Hold Me Back 15-1 *
9 Join in the Dance 50-1 *
8 Mine That Bird 50-1 *
3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1 *
2 Musket Man 20-1 *
18 Nowhere to Hide 50-1 *
7 Papa Clem 20-1 *
10 Regal Ransom 30-1 *
17 Summer Bird 50-1 *
1 West Side Bernie 30-1 *
That leaves 7 horses to work with for exacta and trifecta betting. Of course, the 3-6-9 bet will still be made even though two of them are throwouts. And a couple of these may make it back into a trifecta bet.
Later,
JH
Post position draw just finished up. It is a long race with lots of horses. Post position is not that much a factor. Big Brown won last year from the far outside post 20.
Okay on to the topic. With 20 horses involved there is only one way to guarantee having the winner. Bet on every horse to win. You won't make any money unless a real long shot wins. So, now is the time to decide who can't win or finish in the top three.
The throwouts for this year.
Post Horse Odds
4 Advice 30-1 *
14 Atomic Rain 50-1 *
12 General Quarters 20-1 *
5 Hold Me Back 15-1 *
9 Join in the Dance 50-1 *
8 Mine That Bird 50-1 *
3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1 *
2 Musket Man 20-1 *
18 Nowhere to Hide 50-1 *
7 Papa Clem 20-1 *
10 Regal Ransom 30-1 *
17 Summer Bird 50-1 *
1 West Side Bernie 30-1 *
That leaves 7 horses to work with for exacta and trifecta betting. Of course, the 3-6-9 bet will still be made even though two of them are throwouts. And a couple of these may make it back into a trifecta bet.
Later,
JH
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Tuesday Kentucky Derby update
Square Eddie is out of the Derby. Not a big deal as he was not in the betting picture anyway.
Todays angle is the dirt versus synthetic topic. I talked about this last year. Basically horses run faster on dirt than the new synthetic surfaces. Horses can also have trouble making the transition from synthetic to dirt, this factors into the California horses since a lot of tracks out there are synthetic. The Derby is on dirt (duh). Here is a list stolen from another site of the horses and what surface they have won on.
A look at what Derby field has run (and won) over:
Dirt winners
Dunkirk*
Flying Private
Freisan Fire*
Join in the Dance
Musket Man*
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird*
Take the Points
Win Willy
*-Has also run on synthetics
Synthetic winners
*-Advice
Chocolate Candy
*-Hold Me Back
*-Mine That Bird
Mr. Hot Stuff
Pioneerof the Nile
*-has also run on dirt
Won on both
Desert Party
I Want Revenge
Papa Clem
West Side Bernie
So what does all that mean, I don't have a clue. History is short on this topic as synthetics only came in about three years ago. However, last year at the Derby, synthetic only runners did not finish better than sixth. Two horses I like early are syns only, Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile. Of course, I Want Revenge came off the syns and had two huge races on dirt in NY.
It factors in somehow but I don't have a clue how.
Later,
JH
Todays angle is the dirt versus synthetic topic. I talked about this last year. Basically horses run faster on dirt than the new synthetic surfaces. Horses can also have trouble making the transition from synthetic to dirt, this factors into the California horses since a lot of tracks out there are synthetic. The Derby is on dirt (duh). Here is a list stolen from another site of the horses and what surface they have won on.
A look at what Derby field has run (and won) over:
Dirt winners
Dunkirk*
Flying Private
Freisan Fire*
Join in the Dance
Musket Man*
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird*
Take the Points
Win Willy
*-Has also run on synthetics
Synthetic winners
*-Advice
Chocolate Candy
*-Hold Me Back
*-Mine That Bird
Mr. Hot Stuff
Pioneerof the Nile
*-has also run on dirt
Won on both
Desert Party
I Want Revenge
Papa Clem
West Side Bernie
So what does all that mean, I don't have a clue. History is short on this topic as synthetics only came in about three years ago. However, last year at the Derby, synthetic only runners did not finish better than sixth. Two horses I like early are syns only, Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile. Of course, I Want Revenge came off the syns and had two huge races on dirt in NY.
It factors in somehow but I don't have a clue how.
Later,
JH
Monday, April 27, 2009
Monday Derby update
Quality Road is out of the Derby. Guess Ian could not work his hoof magic. Too bad but he was a throw out at this point so makes it a bit easier.
Who can win - I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile. Friesan Fire is probably in there as well but kind of flying under the radar right now. No too much written about him so far.
Who hits the board - Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, Papa Clem, Flying Private.
More work outs this week, post draw on Wednesday. Picture starting to get a bit clearer.
Time to go scour the intarwebz some more.
Later,
JH
Who can win - I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile. Friesan Fire is probably in there as well but kind of flying under the radar right now. No too much written about him so far.
Who hits the board - Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, Papa Clem, Flying Private.
More work outs this week, post draw on Wednesday. Picture starting to get a bit clearer.
Time to go scour the intarwebz some more.
Later,
JH
Friday, April 24, 2009
A week and a few hours
Regular blog readers beware, the next week of posts will only be about one thing, THE DERBY! Random blog readers, welcome back.
So, early bets to worry about. Of course, the old 3-6-9 bet. And this year for the first time in quite a while, the Baffert-Lukas bet. That of course is an exacta bet on the Baffert trained horse Pioneerof the Nile and the Lukas trained horse Flying Private. The last time I made that bet as a throwaway it paid $1300 on a $2 exacta. And guess who had it. The why is because I lost some money when they kept winning races and I didn't bet on them. So, bet the exacta just in case.
In other news, Quality Road has another quarter crack but Ian is on the case so he will probably run. Ian is a former Plainfield curler who is the best in the business at fixing hooves.
More as the week progresses.
Later,
JH
So, early bets to worry about. Of course, the old 3-6-9 bet. And this year for the first time in quite a while, the Baffert-Lukas bet. That of course is an exacta bet on the Baffert trained horse Pioneerof the Nile and the Lukas trained horse Flying Private. The last time I made that bet as a throwaway it paid $1300 on a $2 exacta. And guess who had it. The why is because I lost some money when they kept winning races and I didn't bet on them. So, bet the exacta just in case.
In other news, Quality Road has another quarter crack but Ian is on the case so he will probably run. Ian is a former Plainfield curler who is the best in the business at fixing hooves.
More as the week progresses.
Later,
JH
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
I control the universe
A rant of sorts about ice making. Eyes glazing over? Go here for a cool pic or here for cute kittens.
First off a public apology to Aaron and the entire Plainfield curling club. Sorry for besmirching your ice, I would never do that and actually didn't no matter what the rumors are saying.
Anyway, back to the topic. Seems I control the universe that is the GNCC. Pretty cool huh. Whatever I say goes. So everyone should donate $10,000 to Pittsburgh so they can build a club and 32 teams should sign up for the Golden Handle next year. Okay, now that is out of the way.
There is an email chain floating around that I have decided that all GNCC clubs should send their scraper blades for sharpening to Winnipeg and not Southern Ontario. I won't mention the firms involved. Uh yeah, not really. This grew out of an idea that was floated at the ice tech clinic last fall. Why not save on shipping by gathering blades and sending them in bulk. Great idea. So, where should they go? Well the firm in Ontario was in turmoil so rather than take a chance, send them to Winnipeg. That is what is happening. Nothing sinister, no hidden agenda, just trying to get blades sharpened.
Seems the firm in Ontario got wind of this somehow and have claimed that I am controlling the entire GNCC ice making world. {sarcasm} No blades can ever go to Ontario, they eat junior curlers and sharpen blades with rocks {/sarcasm}.
So, if you hear a rumor that I control the GNCC it is true. As such, I expect each club to send someone to us to scrape our ice every day. And I will win every bonspiel that I enter next year, you will lose any game played against me on purpose.
Later,
JH
King of the GNCC
First off a public apology to Aaron and the entire Plainfield curling club. Sorry for besmirching your ice, I would never do that and actually didn't no matter what the rumors are saying.
Anyway, back to the topic. Seems I control the universe that is the GNCC. Pretty cool huh. Whatever I say goes. So everyone should donate $10,000 to Pittsburgh so they can build a club and 32 teams should sign up for the Golden Handle next year. Okay, now that is out of the way.
There is an email chain floating around that I have decided that all GNCC clubs should send their scraper blades for sharpening to Winnipeg and not Southern Ontario. I won't mention the firms involved. Uh yeah, not really. This grew out of an idea that was floated at the ice tech clinic last fall. Why not save on shipping by gathering blades and sending them in bulk. Great idea. So, where should they go? Well the firm in Ontario was in turmoil so rather than take a chance, send them to Winnipeg. That is what is happening. Nothing sinister, no hidden agenda, just trying to get blades sharpened.
Seems the firm in Ontario got wind of this somehow and have claimed that I am controlling the entire GNCC ice making world. {sarcasm} No blades can ever go to Ontario, they eat junior curlers and sharpen blades with rocks {/sarcasm}.
So, if you hear a rumor that I control the GNCC it is true. As such, I expect each club to send someone to us to scrape our ice every day. And I will win every bonspiel that I enter next year, you will lose any game played against me on purpose.
Later,
JH
King of the GNCC
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