Thursday, April 29, 2010

Thursday Derby update

Here is the only way to weed out 20 betting interests.

Who won't win
Noble's Promise, Line of David, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, Paddy O'Prado, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Backtalk, Homeboykris, Sidney's Candy

That leaves 8 horses to figure out. Let's look at them by post order.
Lookin at Lucky - a bad post but a good horse and jockey, mostly a synthetic runner, might be in the mix, I am thinking not on the board.
Ice Box - a deep closer that will be last at some point and have to pass everyone, with a sloppy track do not think that will happen, in the mix for trifectas
Super Saver - a good post for Borel, will save ground, on the board in both off track runs, in the mix
Stately Victor - another strong closer. a lot of turf background, can't keep them all, not in the mix
Conveyance - the other Baffert horse which could be the one who wins,first grade 1 race, can he stay wire to wire or hang on for a spot, in the mix
Jackson Bend - consistant,lucky to get in, will show he belongs, my pick for the winner
Awesome Act - a stalker from Europe, in the mix
Dublin - D. Wayne Lukas, enough said, probably not in the mix

So the five to keep - Ice Box, Super Saver, Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Awesome Act.

Later
JH

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