Derby aftermath

Once again I should listen to myself. Super Saver was in the mix on Thursday, not on Friday and in and out on Saturday. Good thing Mrs. JH is smarter than me cause she had the exacta. Too many losing bets to make any money but did get back all that was bet with the one exacta.

Is there a triple crown this year? I don't think so at this point. Super Saver may win the Preakness but the Belmont is a long, long race and I don't think he can hang for the wire.

Will be interesting to see who runs the Preakness.

Later
JH

Friday Derby update

Okay, after a day of review here we go.

Most likely to win - Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Mission Impazible
In the mix - Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney's Candy

So those three will be on top or boxed in the exactas and trifectas. Heavy exacta on the top three and those three on top of a big tri. Can't bet them all.

Good luck to all those playing and see you at the winners window.

Later,
JH

Thursday Derby update

Here is the only way to weed out 20 betting interests.

Who won't win
Noble's Promise, Line of David, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, Paddy O'Prado, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Backtalk, Homeboykris, Sidney's Candy

That leaves 8 horses to figure out. Let's look at them by post order.
Lookin at Lucky - a bad post but a good horse and jockey, mostly a synthetic runner, might be in the mix, I am thinking not on the board.
Ice Box - a deep closer that will be last at some point and have to pass everyone, with a sloppy track do not think that will happen, in the mix for trifectas
Super Saver - a good post for Borel, will save ground, on the board in both off track runs, in the mix
Stately Victor - another strong closer. a lot of turf background, can't keep them all, not in the mix
Conveyance - the other Baffert horse which could be the one who wins,first grade 1 race, can he stay wire to wire or hang on for a spot, in the mix
Jackson Bend - consistant,lucky to get in, will show he belongs, my pick for the winner
Awesome Act - a stalker from Europe, in the mix
Dublin - D. Wayne Lukas, enough said, probably not in the mix

So the five to keep - Ice Box, Super Saver, Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Awesome Act.

Later
JH

Wednesday Derby update

Here are the posts and morning line odds.
Post Pos. Horse Odds

1. Lookin At Lucky 3-1
2. Ice Box 10-1
3. Noble’s Promise 12-1
4. Super Saver 15-1
5. Line of David 30-1
6. Stately Victor 30-1
7. American Lion 30-1
8. Dean’s Kitten 50-1
9. Make Music For Me 50-1
10. Paddy O’Prado 20-1
11. Devil May Care 10-1
12. Conveyance 12-1
13. Jackson Bend 15-1
14. Mission Impazible 20-1
15. Discreetly Mine 30-1
16. Awesome Act 10-1
17. Dublin 12-1
18. Backtalk 50-1
19. Homeboykris 50-1
20. Sidney’s Candy 5-1

Bad spots for Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy. Pretty good spots for the rest of the speed. Looks like it will break down to a pretty fair race. Speed to the front but no one will steal it I don't think. So look for the raters and closers. Leaning toward that group right now. Time to read up on the past performances and weed out a few more horses.

Later
JH

Tuesday Derby update

So, Rule and Interactif most likely will not run. Devil May Care the filly will run, not entered in the Oaks. Jackson Bend and Back Talk are probably in. Add Back Talk to the throw out list.

Conveyance is coming off the throw list and back in for consideration. Not reading closely enough to realize this is a Baffert horse. I never bet against him. So that is one sure bet at this point - exacta box - Lookin at Lucky, Conveyance, Dublin. Dublin is the Lukas horse and I never bet against him as well. That would actually be a nice exacta if it hit especially the latter two.

Entries are made tomorrow and the field will be set. Here is the throwout winner for those that are following along - Sidney's Candy. Just don't like the synthetic runners.

Later,
JH

Monday Derby update

Eskendereya out of the Derby which makes it more wide open and also opens the way for two interesting horses. Pletcher may run the filly Devil May Care who has the Beyer numbers to support a chance. Also (hopefully) opens the door for Jackson Bend who finished second to Eskendereya twice. Need one more drop out for him to get in if Devil runs.

So, where to start. The throwouts, which means one of these will probably win, one of the throwouts for last year, Mine That Bird.

Here is the list so far.
Noble's Promise - out
Rule - out
Conveyance - out
Interactif - out
Stately Victor - out
Dean's Kitten - out
Discreetly Mine - out
Homeboykris - out
Paddy O'Prado - out

More horses to eliminate as the week progresses.

Later,
JH

One week to go

First Saturday in May, the Run for the Roses, the most exciting two minutes in sports, THE DERBY!! Who is looking good - Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible. Not liking Sidney's Candy. Hoping that Jackson Bend gets in.

Paddy O'prado has a strong work in the mud. Time to start checking the weather forecast to figure out the mudders to bet.

See it as Eskendereya winning big or completely flopping. If he flops then it is anybody's race with a closer getting the win at the wire.

So the betting goes like this, Eskendereya on top of some exactas and triples, then some box exactas and triples without him. Hope he flops and make a big number.

More as the week progresses.

Later
JH

Horsie update

Okay, the top two or three have separated themselves from the early Kentucky Derby field. Eskendereya, Sydney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are the horses to watch at this point. Eskendereya had a huge win in the Wood Memorial at Belmont. Probably will be the favorite for the Derby. Of course, if we go back a year we can see what happens to favorites sometime. A 50-1 shot won the Derby last year.

What does that mean. Time to find that longer odds horse that will be in the money this year and make a really good payout.

Later,
JH

April means horsies

Two big races today, the Santa Anita and the Wood Memorial. Two top horses came out of those. More later as dinner is almost ready.

Still a month to go so lots of investigation to do.

Later
JH

Fifty to one?!?

You have to be kidding me, Mine That Bird? The only people who bet on that were betting numbers, names or colors. Run that race a hundred more times and that horse doesn't win once. Oh well, made a nice donation I guess. On to the Preakness.

Later,
JH

Kentucky Derby day

Bets are all made. With the scratch of I Want Revenge I went with Friesan Fire as my key horse. Good on an off track which is what it looks like it will be at this point.

Total outlay - $285. Need FF to win then a nice long for second and third. Could be a nice payout.

Simple syrup is made and steeping with mint. Bourbon all set to go. Mint Julep time around 5:00 .

Later,
JH

Kentucky Derby Thursday update 2

Okay, so given my schedule for the next two days as previously noted, here is the pick to win this year.

I Want Revenge

Favorite has won the last two and 3 of the last 5. I think that repeats again. Have to bet a lot on just a win to make any money as he goes off somewhere in the 2-1 range. Since betting the Derby is all about making money time to figure out which horse of 7 will finish second and make the payout worth it.

Betting strategy at this point - IWR on top of a $5 exacta with 4 or 5 horses underneath ($20 or $25 bet). Then some $1 trifectas with IWR on top and 5 horses for second and 7 or 8 for third. A bet on Flying Private for show, the 3-6-9 bet (probably exacta) and the Baffert-Lukas box exacta (IWR and Flying Private).

If I get a chance tomorrow night will update who the rest of the horses are that will hit the board. Remember bet with your head and not over it.

Later,
JH

Kentucky Derby Thursday am update

Post positions are drawn and the field is finally set. Past performances are being printed out. Lots of reading to do for the next couple of days. Two roadblocks to that, going to the Yankees tonight and have to drive to New Hamsphire tomorrow for a meeting.

Early picks for the win - I Want Revenge, Freisan Fire. Dunkirk just has not raced enough. Pioneerof the Nile looks good but doesn't have a Beyer figure over 100 but will bet him anyway as Baffert won't beat me again.

More later after lots more reading.

Later,
JH

Kentucky Derby Wednesday update

Another horse dropped out, Win Willy and a horse got in, Atomic Rain. Neither are factors.

Post position draw just finished up. It is a long race with lots of horses. Post position is not that much a factor. Big Brown won last year from the far outside post 20.

Okay on to the topic. With 20 horses involved there is only one way to guarantee having the winner. Bet on every horse to win. You won't make any money unless a real long shot wins. So, now is the time to decide who can't win or finish in the top three.

The throwouts for this year.
Post Horse Odds
4 Advice 30-1 *
14 Atomic Rain 50-1 *
12 General Quarters 20-1 *
5 Hold Me Back 15-1 *
9 Join in the Dance 50-1 *
8 Mine That Bird 50-1 *
3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1 *
2 Musket Man 20-1 *
18 Nowhere to Hide 50-1 *
7 Papa Clem 20-1 *
10 Regal Ransom 30-1 *
17 Summer Bird 50-1 *
1 West Side Bernie 30-1 *

That leaves 7 horses to work with for exacta and trifecta betting. Of course, the 3-6-9 bet will still be made even though two of them are throwouts. And a couple of these may make it back into a trifecta bet.

Later,
JH

Tuesday Kentucky Derby update

Square Eddie is out of the Derby. Not a big deal as he was not in the betting picture anyway.

Todays angle is the dirt versus synthetic topic. I talked about this last year. Basically horses run faster on dirt than the new synthetic surfaces. Horses can also have trouble making the transition from synthetic to dirt, this factors into the California horses since a lot of tracks out there are synthetic. The Derby is on dirt (duh). Here is a list stolen from another site of the horses and what surface they have won on.

A look at what Derby field has run (and won) over:

Dirt winners
Dunkirk*
Flying Private
Freisan Fire*
Join in the Dance
Musket Man*
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird*
Take the Points
Win Willy
*-Has also run on synthetics

Synthetic winners
*-Advice
Chocolate Candy
*-Hold Me Back
*-Mine That Bird
Mr. Hot Stuff
Pioneerof the Nile
*-has also run on dirt

Won on both
Desert Party
I Want Revenge
Papa Clem
West Side Bernie

So what does all that mean, I don't have a clue. History is short on this topic as synthetics only came in about three years ago. However, last year at the Derby, synthetic only runners did not finish better than sixth. Two horses I like early are syns only, Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile. Of course, I Want Revenge came off the syns and had two huge races on dirt in NY.

It factors in somehow but I don't have a clue how.

Later,
JH

Monday Derby update

Quality Road is out of the Derby. Guess Ian could not work his hoof magic. Too bad but he was a throw out at this point so makes it a bit easier.

Who can win - I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile. Friesan Fire is probably in there as well but kind of flying under the radar right now. No too much written about him so far.

Who hits the board - Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, Papa Clem, Flying Private.

More work outs this week, post draw on Wednesday. Picture starting to get a bit clearer.

Time to go scour the intarwebz some more.

Later,
JH

A week and a few hours

Regular blog readers beware, the next week of posts will only be about one thing, THE DERBY! Random blog readers, welcome back.

So, early bets to worry about. Of course, the old 3-6-9 bet. And this year for the first time in quite a while, the Baffert-Lukas bet. That of course is an exacta bet on the Baffert trained horse Pioneerof the Nile and the Lukas trained horse Flying Private. The last time I made that bet as a throwaway it paid $1300 on a $2 exacta. And guess who had it. The why is because I lost some money when they kept winning races and I didn't bet on them. So, bet the exacta just in case.

In other news, Quality Road has another quarter crack but Ian is on the case so he will probably run. Ian is a former Plainfield curler who is the best in the business at fixing hooves.

More as the week progresses.
Later,
JH

It is over

The end of curling season for me came last night, at least the physical part of throwing rocks. The mental portion ended when I got back from Utica after the Nationals. Both last week and last night at least twice I couldn't remember if I had the hammer and really didn't care.

Glad it is done at this point. Now there is nothing left except the melting of the ice in a couple of weeks. We will be attending a party where curling is happening as we are heading to the Friday night fish fry at the Bonsqueal in Plainfield. Then back to Nutmeg on Saturday for the final in house spiel and dinner (no curling). The plant goes off on that Sunday.

All that is just in time for baseball to arrive. First Yankee game in the new stadium is April 30. The phightin' Phils make a trip to the Yankees this season in May. Have to try and get tickets for that (are you reading this Mrs. JH?)

Also time to start the annual vision quest to determine who not to bet on in the Derby. If you check the posts from last year, I did pick the winner and did not bet on the winner. So watch this space for the horse I throw out and bet the house on it.

Later,
JH

Sad end to a great Derby

In the articles I have read, the onsite vet said he had never seen an injury of that type on Eight Belles. Just sad, she ran a great race. To happen after the wire like that is just strange.

Big Brown is the real deal. He will win the Preakness easily unless he didn't come out of the Derby well. I expect a small field for the Preakness. Only way to make any money on that race will be to bet trifectas.

Look for a lot of articles in the coming days on getting racetracks to switch away from dirt to synthetic.

And I hope that somebody read this and bet the house on Big Brown. One of these years I will take my own advice and bet big on the horse I dont like.

Off to a Yankee game today.

Later,
JH

Derby update for Monday

Here is a wierd connection, this guy who repaired the hoof on Big Brown, used to curl at Plainfield.

So where are we in the choices? So far, Big Brown, Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego are in the mix although one will probably get thrown out. If past history is any indicator, bet the house on the one I throw out. Others that I will be looking at are Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack. Why those are intriguing is due to their past Beyer numbers. Not gonna explain what that is but in the last 20 years, only one horse with a Beyer under 100 has won the Derby. So they get considered.

But seven horses is too many to bet so there will be more digging when the past performances come out late Wednesday. Also, the post position draw will be done that evening.

It is an exciting week.
Later,
JH