Friday Derby update

Okay, after a day of review here we go.

Most likely to win - Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Mission Impazible
In the mix - Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney's Candy

So those three will be on top or boxed in the exactas and trifectas. Heavy exacta on the top three and those three on top of a big tri. Can't bet them all.

Good luck to all those playing and see you at the winners window.

Later,
JH

Thursday Derby update

Here is the only way to weed out 20 betting interests.

Who won't win
Noble's Promise, Line of David, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, Paddy O'Prado, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Backtalk, Homeboykris, Sidney's Candy

That leaves 8 horses to figure out. Let's look at them by post order.
Lookin at Lucky - a bad post but a good horse and jockey, mostly a synthetic runner, might be in the mix, I am thinking not on the board.
Ice Box - a deep closer that will be last at some point and have to pass everyone, with a sloppy track do not think that will happen, in the mix for trifectas
Super Saver - a good post for Borel, will save ground, on the board in both off track runs, in the mix
Stately Victor - another strong closer. a lot of turf background, can't keep them all, not in the mix
Conveyance - the other Baffert horse which could be the one who wins,first grade 1 race, can he stay wire to wire or hang on for a spot, in the mix
Jackson Bend - consistant,lucky to get in, will show he belongs, my pick for the winner
Awesome Act - a stalker from Europe, in the mix
Dublin - D. Wayne Lukas, enough said, probably not in the mix

So the five to keep - Ice Box, Super Saver, Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Awesome Act.

Later
JH

Wednesday Derby update

Here are the posts and morning line odds.
Post Pos. Horse Odds

1. Lookin At Lucky 3-1
2. Ice Box 10-1
3. Noble’s Promise 12-1
4. Super Saver 15-1
5. Line of David 30-1
6. Stately Victor 30-1
7. American Lion 30-1
8. Dean’s Kitten 50-1
9. Make Music For Me 50-1
10. Paddy O’Prado 20-1
11. Devil May Care 10-1
12. Conveyance 12-1
13. Jackson Bend 15-1
14. Mission Impazible 20-1
15. Discreetly Mine 30-1
16. Awesome Act 10-1
17. Dublin 12-1
18. Backtalk 50-1
19. Homeboykris 50-1
20. Sidney’s Candy 5-1

Bad spots for Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy. Pretty good spots for the rest of the speed. Looks like it will break down to a pretty fair race. Speed to the front but no one will steal it I don't think. So look for the raters and closers. Leaning toward that group right now. Time to read up on the past performances and weed out a few more horses.

Later
JH

Tuesday Derby update

So, Rule and Interactif most likely will not run. Devil May Care the filly will run, not entered in the Oaks. Jackson Bend and Back Talk are probably in. Add Back Talk to the throw out list.

Conveyance is coming off the throw list and back in for consideration. Not reading closely enough to realize this is a Baffert horse. I never bet against him. So that is one sure bet at this point - exacta box - Lookin at Lucky, Conveyance, Dublin. Dublin is the Lukas horse and I never bet against him as well. That would actually be a nice exacta if it hit especially the latter two.

Entries are made tomorrow and the field will be set. Here is the throwout winner for those that are following along - Sidney's Candy. Just don't like the synthetic runners.

Later,
JH

Monday Derby update

Eskendereya out of the Derby which makes it more wide open and also opens the way for two interesting horses. Pletcher may run the filly Devil May Care who has the Beyer numbers to support a chance. Also (hopefully) opens the door for Jackson Bend who finished second to Eskendereya twice. Need one more drop out for him to get in if Devil runs.

So, where to start. The throwouts, which means one of these will probably win, one of the throwouts for last year, Mine That Bird.

Here is the list so far.
Noble's Promise - out
Rule - out
Conveyance - out
Interactif - out
Stately Victor - out
Dean's Kitten - out
Discreetly Mine - out
Homeboykris - out
Paddy O'Prado - out

More horses to eliminate as the week progresses.

Later,
JH

One week to go

First Saturday in May, the Run for the Roses, the most exciting two minutes in sports, THE DERBY!! Who is looking good - Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible. Not liking Sidney's Candy. Hoping that Jackson Bend gets in.

Paddy O'prado has a strong work in the mud. Time to start checking the weather forecast to figure out the mudders to bet.

See it as Eskendereya winning big or completely flopping. If he flops then it is anybody's race with a closer getting the win at the wire.

So the betting goes like this, Eskendereya on top of some exactas and triples, then some box exactas and triples without him. Hope he flops and make a big number.

More as the week progresses.

Later
JH

Horsie update

Okay, the top two or three have separated themselves from the early Kentucky Derby field. Eskendereya, Sydney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are the horses to watch at this point. Eskendereya had a huge win in the Wood Memorial at Belmont. Probably will be the favorite for the Derby. Of course, if we go back a year we can see what happens to favorites sometime. A 50-1 shot won the Derby last year.

What does that mean. Time to find that longer odds horse that will be in the money this year and make a really good payout.

Later,
JH

April means horsies

Two big races today, the Santa Anita and the Wood Memorial. Two top horses came out of those. More later as dinner is almost ready.

Still a month to go so lots of investigation to do.

Later
JH